Bearish strategy · Scenario Lab
Market outlook Strongly bearish
Short higher-strike put with two long lower-strike puts. Use the lab to see how the position responds before committing to a single forecast.
Scenario Lab
Move the underlying, clock, and implied volatility independently. Values before expiration use a Black–Scholes estimate; expiration values use intrinsic payoff.
The catalog’s default strikes and premiums are illustrative. No ticker lookup or market data is used.
| Underlying | Today | 30 days | 14 days | 7 days | Expiration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -15% — | — | — | — | — | — |
| -10% — | — | — | — | — | — |
| -5% — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 0% — | — | — | — | — | — |
| +5% — | — | — | — | — | — |
| +10% — | — | — | — | — | — |
| +20% — | — | — | — | — | — |
At expiration
Time value has gone to zero. IV no longer changes the result.
| Underlying | Move | P/L |
|---|---|---|
| — | -15% | — |
| — | -10% | — |
| — | -5% | — |
| — | 0% | — |
| — | +5% | — |
| — | +10% | — |
| — | +20% | — |
Model boundary: theoretical estimates use dividend-adjusted Black–Scholes for European exercise or a 100-step binomial estimate for American exercise. Fees, spreads, discrete dividend dates, early assignment behavior, and liquidity effects are excluded. Calculation, not advice.
Why this structure behaves this way
Extra long puts give net positive gamma and vega below the strike — the position benefits from a sharp drop and rising IV. Theta bleeds against you while the stock sits between strikes.
This page uses the catalog’s illustrative default legs so you can compare direction, time, and volatility effects in one place. Edit the assumptions above to test a different starting point.