Inflation scenario
What happens if inflation is 5%?
The inflation rate you assume changes long-term planning numbers more than most people expect. Here's the same $100,000 run through 3%, 5%, and 7% inflation over 20 years, side by side.
The decision in one line
Inflation compounds the same way investment growth does, just working against purchasing power instead of for it. A modest-looking difference in assumed annual rate — 3% versus 5% versus 7% — produces a large difference in what a fixed amount is really worth two decades out. Testing more than one inflation scenario, rather than anchoring to a single assumption, is the practical takeaway.
Worked example: $100,000 over 20 years
The same starting amount, projected forward at three different constant annual inflation rates:
| 3% inflation | 5% inflation | 7% inflation | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equivalent future price level | $180,611 | $265,330 | $386,968 |
| Purchasing power of $100,000 today, in 20 years | $55,368 | $37,689 | $25,842 |
At 5% inflation, $100,000 held without growth would be worth roughly $37,689 in today's purchasing power after 20 years — it would take $265,330 in future dollars to buy what $100,000 buys now. Moving from 3% to 5% inflation nearly halves future purchasing power (from $55,368 down to $37,689); moving from 5% to 7% cuts it by close to a third again. The relationship is compounding, not linear, which is why small changes in the assumed rate matter more the longer the time horizon.
What this means for planning
Any long-term savings or retirement target set in today's dollars needs to either be inflation-adjusted going forward, or paired with a savings/investment growth rate that's realistically expected to outpace inflation, not just match a nominal dollar goal. This is also why retirement and investment calculators that let you separate a nominal return assumption from an inflation assumption tend to give a more honest picture than ones that don't.
How to decide
- Don't plan around a single inflation number — run your long-term goals at a low, base, and high inflation scenario.
- Check current and historical inflation data for your country rather than assuming a fixed textbook number applies.
- For savings or investment goals, compare your expected real (after-inflation) return, not just the nominal return, against your inflation assumption.
- Revisit inflation-sensitive plans periodically — actual inflation over a multi-decade horizon is inherently uncertain.
Run your own inflation numbers ↗ See the flip side: lower investment returns ↗
Frequently asked questions
- What does 5% inflation do to my savings over time?
- At 5% annual inflation, $100,000 today would need to grow to about $265,330 in 20 years just to buy the same amount of goods and services — equivalently, $100,000 held in cash (earning no return) would lose more than half its purchasing power over that period.
- Is 5% inflation high or typical?
- It depends on the period and country. Many developed economies have targeted around 2% annual inflation as a long-run policy goal, so 5% would be well above that target — but actual inflation has varied significantly across different periods, including stretches both above and below typical targets. Check current and historical data rather than assuming a fixed number applies to your planning period.
- How do I protect savings against inflation?
- This site doesn't provide investment recommendations. Generally, assets that have historically tended to grow faster than inflation over long periods (equities, real estate, inflation-protected securities) are one way people think about this, while cash and low-yield savings tend to lose purchasing power during high-inflation periods — but all of these carry their own risks and no asset is guaranteed to outpace inflation in any specific period.
- Should my retirement or savings plan use a fixed inflation assumption?
- It's useful to test more than one assumption — a base case plus a higher and lower scenario — rather than relying on a single number, since actual inflation over a multi-decade planning horizon is inherently uncertain and can swing the real value of a fixed savings target substantially.
- What's the difference between nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) value?
- Nominal value is the raw dollar amount; real value is what that amount can actually buy after accounting for inflation. A savings goal set in nominal dollars today will buy less in the future unless it's adjusted upward for inflation — this is why long-term financial goals are often better framed in terms of purchasing power, not just a fixed dollar target.
Source note: Figures above are computed illustrations from entered assumptions, not an inflation forecast. All calculations happen in your browser — nothing you enter is sent to a server or stored. This is educational financial information, not investment advice.