Decision Guide · Reviewed 6 September 2026
Investing now beats waiting for a crash 90% of the time—missing up-days is more costly than buying near peaks.
S&P 500: 40 best days in past 20 years account for 50% of total returns. Miss the 10 best days? Your returns cut in half. Crash timing almost never beats buy-and-hold discipline.
The cost of market timing
| Strategy | $100K invested, 20 years at 10% annual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Invest now (buy and hold) | $673,000 (full time-in-market) | Baseline |
| Miss 10 best days | $385,000 (−43%) | Loses all wealth gain |
| Miss 20 best days | $195,000 (−71%) | Barely beats savings account |
| Wait for 30% crash, then invest | $470,000 (still lower than buy-now) | Saved ~$300K in entry price, but miss entire rally to crash |
Real-world crash timing attempt
Scenario: Feb 2020, S&P 500 at $330. You wait for bigger crash.
- March 2020: Crash to $220 (33% drop). You buy.
- April 2020–Sept 2021: Massive rally to $450 (+105%).
- Net: You bought at $220, now worth $450. Gained $230/share.
- But: If you'd invested at $330 (peak), now worth $450. Gained $120/share. Only 48% less, despite "worse" timing.
When waiting might work (rare)
- You don't have the cash yet (savings still accumulating). No decision.
- You're planning a large inheritance/bonus in 6 months. Save cash for that, invest then.
- Extreme valuation (CAPE ratio > 30, historically rare). Waiting might reduce risk, but no guarantee of crash.
Best compromise: Dollar-cost average
Invest $50K monthly over 2 years instead of $600K now. Smooths entry price, reduces timing risk, captures some cash drag protection, but less time-in-market drag than waiting.
Recommendation: Invest now with money you have. Don't wait. If trying to time a crash, you're probably wrong and will miss the recovery.